The Iranians have hoodwinked Obama, again. After bypassing a deadline for over a week, they finally decided they will not export their uranium to Russia for enrichment, but will import uranium from whomever will provide it. In other words, they have spit on western concessions and have challenged Obama's resolve. Meanwhile, Europeans are ready to reject Iran's demands now as "unacceptable" but the United States is, "more willing to show patience than either Britain or France." Remember too that Israel has no say, even though they will be the first target of any nuclear weapon that Iran develops.
Here's the question of the day. Why is the US government so eager to keep playing Teheran's game?
• President Barack Obama's worldview insists that all problems are resolvable by talking and making concessions. He also fears confrontation. This mix of naivete and spineless are very dangerous for us and laughable to our enemies.
• The desire to keep Russia on board. But we know Russia won't support sanctions or serious pressure on Iran. Moscow wants America to fail internationally and views Iran as an ally.
So America's policy is being held hostage by a president with no experience and little understanding of international affairs, a set of ideas making failure inevitable, trying to please a country which is an ally of the adversary and mis-estimating a dictatorial regime with cataclysmic ambitions and an overabundance of self-confidence.
What a mess! But how long into 2010 can they spin this before Washington recognizes that talks are going nowhere? My guess: probably not until Iran finishes its "bomb." At that point, Obama's fallback position as already been stated: "containment!" I'm sure that will go better than it did in our strategy with North Korea!
Three more little PROBLEMS:
First, containment requires high levels of US credibility. That means Iran's regime must believe that aggression will bring US retaliation up to using nuclear weapons itself. Will President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's regime tremble before Obama?
Second, Arab states must have a firm belief that the US is a reliable protector. Can they think this of Obama's administration? They don't want to hear that he loves Islam and the Palestinians; they want to know he'll fight. Once they see Obama will roll over and play dead, they'll appease Iran.
Third, and perhaps most important, Iran's increased power in having nuclear weapons will not consist merely of firing them off. The entire Arab world will be united out of fear. Western appeasement will remove any moderate Arab hope of survival. Radical Islam will rule! Terrorism will have free reign against dissident Muslims as well as the infidel west. Iran's radical regime is bent on nothing less than the cataclysmic event that will usher in the return of the Mahdi.
So much for a Monday!
Author: Distant Thunder Book One of the Lightning Chronicles